It seems that the only certainty about what a Trump presidency is going to mean is uncertainty. Trump’s predilection to “tweet first, think later”, his populist and protectionist campaign message, his frequent ‘policy’ reversals, and a wide spectrum of cabinet nominees all add up to confusion and therefore uncertainty in markets as well as in government halls around the world.


There is a growing consensus that interest rates are headed up (there is so little downside that the odds favour this anyway), that risk premia will expand (due to volatility as well as economic and geopolitical risks), and that the greenback will remain strong. History would indicate that this combination generally leads to lower private sector investment and lower valuations around the world. Add to this the challenges that are appearing in regards US trade policy (the TPP has virtually no hope of surviving in its current state, tariffs may be introduced, and increased pressure will be brought on companies looking to move operations offshore) and global companies may well be looking at higher costs and reduced (or even negative) revenue growth. Naturally, ASEAN economics, currencies, and companies will not be spared this global volatility and uncertainty.

Read More